By Teresa Brown
It is probably no surprise that global production
of industrial minerals has increased dramatically between 1913
and 2012, but closer examination of the data reveals the
staggering scale of the increase. For example, production of graphite in 1913
was slightly more than 143,000 tonnes, whereas in 2012, global
output was more than 2.1m tonnes, an increase of 1,370%.
Production of magnesite in 1913 was 354,000 tonnes compared
with nearly 24.5m tonnes in 2012; an increase of more than
6,800%. These are equivalent to increases of 14% and 68% per
year, respectively, in each of the 100 years.
More detailed interrogation of the figures shows
some interesting patterns. Although it might be considered
likely that the biggest percentage increases have occurred in
recent times, on a decade by decade scale, this is not true for
many industrial minerals. Barite (barytes), fluorspar, lithium and magnesite
underwent the largest percentage increases in the period
between 1932 and 1942. For kaolin and
phosphate rock, the largest percentage increase occurred during
the period 1942 to 1952, and for graphite from 1952 to 1962,
although for the latter, the period between 1932 and 1942 also
experienced high production growth (see Table 1).
To understand why these mineral production
increases occurred when they did, it is necessary to consider a
number of different factors.
Increasing global population, improvements
in living standards and the development of new
technologies have all had an impact on the consumption of
minerals, resulting in the increased production of many
commodities.
Global events also have a noticeable impact. Many
of the production increases described above correlate with the
Second World War (1939-1945) and this is reflected in
production data for many metallic minerals. Spikes in
production of certain minerals also occurred around the time of
the First World War and during other conflicts. Therefore, it
would be straightforward to conclude that one effect of
conflict is to increase mineral consumption.
However, the situation is more complicated than
that. The 1940s and 1950s was a period of human history that
experienced significant change in the consumption of a wide
range of consumer products as the social structure of many
countries altered following the Second World War, and this
obscures the picture.
Table 1: Percentage change in world total
production per decade for selected industrial
minerals
|
Year the data first available
|
Percentage change per decade
|
1913-1922
|
1922-1932
|
1932-1942
|
1942-1952
|
1952-1962
|
1962-1972
|
1972-1982
|
1982-1992
|
1992-2002
|
2002-2012
|
Barite
|
1913
|
133%
|
-16%
|
193%
|
70%
|
78%
|
28%
|
87%
|
-32%
|
19%
|
65%
|
Fluorspar
|
1913
|
24%
|
-45%
|
641%
|
53%
|
82%
|
128%
|
-10%
|
-8%
|
10%
|
52%
|
Graphite
|
1913
|
-26%
|
-39%
|
281%
|
-45%
|
298%
|
-29%
|
44%
|
82%
|
62%
|
30%
|
Kaolin
|
1920
|
|
31%
|
-20%
|
117%
|
71%
|
103%
|
22%
|
28%
|
4%
|
13%
|
Lithium
|
1925
|
|
|
621%
|
240%
|
382%
|
6%
|
-13%
|
81%
|
74%
|
116%
|
Magnesite
|
1913
|
-54%
|
92%
|
276%
|
29%
|
116%
|
103%
|
71%
|
19%
|
66%
|
9%
|
Phosphate rock
|
1913
|
-21%
|
14%
|
45%
|
169%
|
86%
|
95%
|
36%
|
11%
|
-1%
|
55%
|
Source: BGS, NERC
|
Evolution of the data series
It was the impact of the First World War that
created the impetus for the BGS’s predecessors to
begin the process of collecting worldwide mineral production
and trade data. The collection of mineral statistics for the UK
began in the 1850s and although the necessity of extending this
to include other countries had previously been identified,
attempts to do so prior to 1913 were sporadic and not fully
comprehensive.
Conflict inevitably restricts supplies from
opposing countries, and the disruption to transport
infrastructure causes problems with deliveries between other
nations. As a result, supplies of certain key minerals from
overseas, including phosphates, were interrupted during the
First World War.
Thus, in 1918, an 'Imperial War
Conference’ recommended the formation of an
Imperial Mineral Resources Bureau in the UK, with a mandate to
"collect, coordinate and disseminate information in regard to
the resources, production, treatment, consumption and
requirements of every mineral and metal of economic value" and
to "advise on the development of the mineral resources
(…) in order that such resources may be made available
for the purposes of imperial defence or industry".
This led directly to the publication in 1921 of
the first edition of The Mineral Industry of the British
Empire and Foreign Countries, Statistical Summary (Production,
Imports and Exports) covering the last pre-war year of
1913 through to post-war 1919 and 1920. This book and its
successors have been published more or less annually ever
since. The release of the latest volume covering 2008 to 2012
completes the 100th year of the underlying dataset
and is therefore known as the 'Centenary
Edition’.
There have been many changes since the first
edition - not least the dropping of references to the "British
Empire" and the somewhat derogatory sounding reference to
"foreign" countries, which happened in 1950. Political changes
are also reflected in the changing of country names: early
editions refer to Persia, Siam and Ceylon, for example - today
Iran, Thailand and Sri Lanka, respectively. The dissolution and
unification of countries is also reflected by their appearance
or disappearance in the volumes. For example, the Soviet Union
dissolved in 1991 and was replaced by 15 'new’
countries, whereas the former states known as the "Federal
Republic of Germany" (West) and the "German Democratic
Republic" (East) are replaced simply with "Germany", following
reunification in 1990. A meander through the series of books
quickly becomes a lesson in 20th century
geographical history.
There has been an increase in the number of
commodities covered by the series too, from 39 in the first
volume, to 73 commodities in the Centenary Edition. It might be
expected that, as mankind has developed the modern technology
considered essential today, this has required a wider range of
commodities for its manufacture and therefore the increase in
the number of minerals in each book would have risen more
sharply in recent times. However, as Figure 2
demonstrates, this is not actually the case.
Conversely, it is surprising how early in the
series some commodities first appear, given that they continue
to be particularly newsworthy in recent times. Graphite, for
example, appears in the very earliest edition, with data from
1913 and data for lithium begins in 1925. Although mankind has
developed new uses for these commodities, they also have more
traditional end-use sectors that still require considerable
quantities of the mineral. For example, lithium demand for
batteries has only very recently overtaken the quantity
required for ceramics and glass.
Changes in consumption
The rapidly growing global population has been a
significant factor in the increased levels of consumption of
all minerals. However, concerns over food security to feed the
Earth’s expanding population have driven the
production of agricultural minerals, such as phosphate rock and
potash, in particular. Production of the former has grown from
7.3m tonnes in 1913 to 215m tonnes in 2012, while the latter
has increased from 1.2m tonnes in 1920 to 31.5m tonnes in
2012.
The continually changing and expanding uses for
many industrial minerals have driven very large production
volume increases in recent years. For example, fluorspar
production in the decade 2002 to 2012 has increased by 52%, its
largest decadal increase for 40 years. This is likely to be the
result of the development of new chemicals requiring fluorine,
and follows many years of relatively flat or declining
production of fluorspar, as the world phased out its use of
chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) following evidence of the damage
caused to the ozone layer by the chlorine. Global production of
lithium in the decade 2001 to 2012 increased by 116%, the
largest decadal increase for 50 years and almost certainly the
effect of the demand for batteries mentioned earlier.
For other industrial minerals, the end uses have
not significantly changed over long periods and consequently,
production levels are more closely aligned with demand in their
leading end-use sectors.
For example, barite is predominantly used for
drilling muds (approximately 80% of the total production) and
therefore a decrease in output of 32% in the period 1982 to
1992 suggests a significant drop in oil and gas exploration
drilling during that time period. This observation fits with
reality; increasing oil production in the early 1980s caused a
significant fall in the oil price, which resulted in a
significant drop in drilling activity. This fall in drilling
activity is reflected in the number of drilling rigs in
operation, which reached a peak in the early 1980s at
approximately 6,000, but fell sharply to approximately 2,000
rigs by 1990 (Conerly, 2013). It is notable that global
production of barite increased by 65% in the period 2002 to
2012, partly as a result of the increased activity in the shale
gas and oil industry, particularly in the US.
Diversity or concentration of
supply
Another development that can be observed in the
statistics relates to changes in the countries supplying
minerals to the world market. Fluorspar is a good example,
because 50 years ago none of the 23 producing countries
individually produced more than 22% of the world’s
total, whereas in 2012 China alone accounted for 62% of global
output. Of the remaining 21 fluorspar producing countries in
2012, only three produced more than 2% of total world
production (see Figure 3a).
By contrast, in 1962 there were 37 countries
producing kaolin, with the US and the UK together accounting
for 64% of global production, whereas in 2012 this had expanded
to 56 producing countries, with the US producing just 23% of
the world’s total. The UK, with 4% of global
production in 2012, has been overtaken by kaolin production
levels in Germany, China, Brazil, Iran and Turkey (see
Figure 3b).
The emergence of China as a leading producer of
many industrial minerals, as it is for many metals, is clear in
the data. In 1962, China produced 3% of the
world’s barite, 9% of the world’s
fluorspar and 8% of the world’s graphite, though
virtually none of the world’s magnesite. In
contrast, in 2012 China produced 45% of the
world’s barite, 62% of fluorspar, 86% of graphite
and 65% of magnesite. Of the 28 industrial minerals covered by
World Mineral Production and listed in Table
2, China was the leading producer of 12 in 2012, whereas
in 1962 it was not the leading producer of any.
It is interesting to consider whether any other
nation has previously held such a dominant position in terms of
global mineral production as China currently does. In 1962, it
was the US that dominated global production of many minerals.
BGS data indicates that the US was the leading producer of 17
of the 28 industrial minerals (Table 2), albeit for a
few of these minerals the data may not be absolutely
complete.
In 1962 the US accounted for 70% of the
world’s production of mica, 31% of feldspar and
41% of phosphate rock. By 2012, production had declined to 14%,
3% and 14%, respectively, for each of these minerals. However,
the US remains the leading producer of six of the industrial
minerals in 2012 - more than any other country with the
exception of China.
Table 2: The leading global
producers of selected industrial minerals in 1962
compared with 2012.
|
Leading
producing country
|
1962
|
2012
|
Arsenic (white)
|
Mexico
|
China
|
Asbestos
|
Canada
|
Russia
|
Barytes
|
US
|
China
|
Bentonite
|
US
|
US
|
Borates
|
US
|
Turkey
|
Bromine
|
US
|
US
|
Diatomite
|
US
|
US
|
Feldspar
|
US
|
Turkey
|
Fluorspar
|
Mexico
|
China
|
Fuller’s
earth
|
US
|
US
|
Graphite
|
South Korea
|
China
|
Gypsum
|
US
|
China
|
Iodine
|
Chile
|
Chile
|
Kaolin
|
US
|
US
|
Lithium
|
Rhodesia
|
Chile
|
Magnesite
|
Austria
|
China
|
Mica
|
US
|
China
|
Natural sodium
carbonate
|
US
|
US
|
Nepheline syenite
|
Canada
|
Russia
|
Perlite
|
US
|
China
|
Phosphate rock
|
US
|
China
|
Potash
|
Germany, Federal
Republic
|
Canada
|
Salt
|
US
|
China
|
Sillimanite
minerals
|
South Africa
|
South Africa
|
Talc
|
US
|
China
|
Vermiculite
|
US
|
South Africa
|
Wollastonite
|
US
|
China
|
Zirconium
minerals
|
Australia
|
Australia
|
|
Supply risk?
If production concentration is not a new
phenomenon, then it raises the question of whether it actually
represents a major supply risk. The supply security of minerals
is currently very topical and concerns have been raised by
governments and industry globally about the availability of raw
materials to support the manufacturing sector.
Production concentration alone is not necessarily
the critical factor; it only becomes a problem if there are
geopolitical constraints on supply, for example, if a major
producer decides to erect trade barriers or is afflicted by
poor governance.
Conversely, if the leading producing country is
strongly in favour of international free trade, influenced only
by levels of demand, then the risk associated with having a
single major producer is lessened. Therefore, it is not just
the presence of a dominant producing country that matters, but
the policies and actions of that country.
A continuing dataset
Whatever view one takes on mineral supply risk,
data such as that presented in World Mineral
Production and its predecessors remains fundamental to
informing the policy- and decision-making processes on many
different levels: from nations, or groups of nations, to
investors and private companies. The collection and analysis of
data that are as accurate and precise as possible remains as
important today as it has always been.
The BGS is constantly seeking to improve the
quality and coverage of the data it publishes in this
long-running series and remains open to suggestions and
feedback as it moves into the next century of data
compilation.
References
British Geological Survey. 2014. World Mineral
Production 2008-2012 Centenary Edition. Available as a free
download from
http://www.bgs.ac.uk/mineralsuk/statistics/worldStatistics.html
Conerly, B. 2013. Oil Price Forecast for
2013-2014: Falling Prices. Forbes. Accessed at:
http://www.forbes.com/sites/billconerly/2013/05/01/oil-price-forecast-for-2013-2014-falling-prices/